![]() ![]() ![]() Good weather has fostered high yields, which are expected to reach 97.6 bushels per acre, 11% higher than last crop season. The area in Brazil planted to corn remained the same as last year – about 41 million acres (see Figure 1) – but expected corn yields have increased. The higher projection has resulted from favorable weather. In the last estimate made in March, the projection was for a harvest of 3,826 million bushels. Record Second Crop Corn Productionīrazil’s second-crop corn production for the current season is projected to be 4,030 million bushels, an 11% increase over the previous year, according to data from Agroconsult, a private Brazilian consultancy. The combination of lower corn prices and a shortage of storage capacity in Brazil will be issues to monitor closely as the harvest continues to advance into June and July. Crop sales, for both the 2022/23 soybean and corn crops, have occurred at a relatively slow pace, lagging historical levels for the same time period. The record crop, combined with price declines in the international market, has resulted in a 30% decline in the price of corn in the Brazilian market in recent months. Illinois Farmland Leasing & Rental Formsīrazilian farmers have begun harvesting the second crop of corn – known as “safrinha” – and expect production to reach 4 billion bushels (102 million metric tons), which would be a record and should drive the recovery of world ending stocks.Illinois Crop Budgets & Historic Returns.Farmland LEasing Facts Sheets & Pricing Information.Illinois Soil Productivity & Yield Utilities.Briomass Crop Budget Tool – Miscanthus & Switchgrass.Appraisal of Current Financial Position.Balance Sheet & Historical Financial Statements.Post Application Coverage Endorsement Tool (Sheet).Precision Conservation Management (PCM).There has been a slight recovery in corn since mid-July, but prices remain down about $.20 – or about 5% below the PP with the implication that there is less likelihood for fall prices to be greater than the PP as well. After retreating at the end of March, corn prices moved upward during April and most of May before beginning a rather steady two-month decline. The PP is fixed for the life of crop insurance contract and is shown as the horizontal dotted line. As can be seen, prices generally rose throughout the averaging period resulting in an average price of $3.96 which was a few cents below the futures prices in March during signup. Since then, however, prospects for very large corn and soybean crops, coupled with uncertainty stemming from the administration’s rhetoric and actions around trade have substantially weighed on futures prices with corn now trading roughly $.20 below Spring PP prices, and November Soybean futures trading at roughly $1.35 below their 2018 projected prices.īecause it is often useful to understand possible price levels in relationship to established floor prices in crop insurance contracts, a visual sense of the process for establishing PPs and the movements in prices since the initiation of the crop insurance period is provided in figures 1 and 2 below.Īt the beginning of March, it would have been reasonable to conclude that there was about a 50% chance of final corn prices being either above or below $4.00 given the futures prices at that date. During the crop insurance signup period in March, November Soybean futures prices were somewhat above the PP and the early season expectations were for prices at or above the projected prices while for corn, the December futures prices were only slightly higher than the projected prices. For 2018, the corn PP is $3.96 and the Soybean PP is $10.16. RMA establishes Projected Prices (PP) each year at the end of February for crop insurance contracts that serve as minimum indemnification prices for crop insurance contracts. The purpose of this farmdoc daily post is to evaluate the market’s current implied price distribution for fall-time corn and soybean prices, and assess the implication for possible levels of crop revenue. Illinois Farmland Leasing & Rental Forms. ![]() ![]()
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